Jaguars at Broncos Week 16 predictions: Top AFC teams clash in Denver

The Jacksonville Jaguars face perhaps their biggest test of 2025 when they visit Mile High Stadium for a 4:05 p.m. game on Sunday.

At 12-2, the Broncos have the best record in the NFL as well as the AFC's top seed.

At 10-4, the Jaguars are one game up in the AFC South and hold the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoff race.

There's a lot on the line in this game, with one big reason being this: if the Jaguars lose to Denver and the Texans win out, Houston will win the AFC South.

The Jaguars haven't played in Denver since 2019, winning that game 26-24.

The Broncos lead the all-time series 8-7, and come into the game 3-point underdogs.

Can the Jaguars overcome one of the best defenses in the league?

Let's see what our experts have to say.

DEMETRIUS HARVEY

Jaguars beat writer

Jaguars 31, Broncos 30

This game will be close, I do not doubt that. Still, I believe Jacksonville pulls this one out. They're the more physical team and have been on a run that's not a fluke. Simply put, Jacksonville's confidence has never been higher and they've shown up for big games plenty of times this season.

Season: 11-3 (Won last week)

MIKE DiROCCO

ESPN

Broncos19, Jaguars 17

As good as the Jaguars' pass protection has been during their five-game win streak, the Broncos' pass rush is the best in the NFL. They have four players with at least 5.5 sacks, including DTs Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers, and that makes it harder to handle.

Season: 8-6 (Won last week)

RYAN O'HALLORAN

Times-Union Sports columnist

Jaguars 28, Broncos 24

Can the basis for picking the Jaguars over Denver be that the Broncos, winners of 11 consecutive games (nine by eight or fewer points), be due to finally have some close-game bad luck?

Not really, so I’ll digress and dig into three reasons why I’m picking the Jaguars: Takeaways, pass protection and receiver Jakobi Meyers.

Takeaways: For all of Denver’s defensive prowess (first in sacks (58), on third down (31.9%) and in the red zone (38.5%), it hasn’t forced many turnovers. The Broncos are 27th in the NFL with only 12 takeaways. By comparison, the Jaguars are second with 26. The Jaguars will win this department.

Pass protection: The Broncos’ four-man pass rush is ferocious, but Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s ability to get out of trouble to throw or scramble and the offensive line’s improved pass protection (no sacks allowed in the last two games) should keep the offense out of second- and third-and-long situations. The Jaguars have allowed 32 sacks, but 14 came in two games (seven apiece by Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams in consecutive weeks).

Meyers: In four career games against the Broncos, Meyers has 28 catches for 335 yards and three touchdowns. Expect coach Liam Coen to scheme up ways to get Meyers against Broncos cornerback Riley Moss, who has eight pass interference penalties.

The Jaguars end the Broncos’ winning streak and reach 11 wins for the first time since 2007.

Season: 10-4 (Won last week)

GARRY SMITS

Times-Union Sports reporter

Jaguars 22, Broncos 21

It will be that close. The defenses, Denver with its pass rush and the Jaguars with their insatiable hunger for turnovers, will dominate this game. In a field goal game, I'll give a slight edge to the Jags' Cam Little over Denver's Will Lutz. Little has made 15 in a row (5 of 5 from 50 yards on beyond) and might break his own NFL record (68 yards) in the rare air of Mile High.

The Jaguars have put their inability to win in Mountain and Pacific Time Zone games behind them (3-0 this season) and Denver has been living on the edge. Consider also that the two teams have eight common opponents. The Jaguars are 7-2 in those games and Denver is 6-2, but the Jags are outscoring those teams 31-20 and Denver 23-17.

Season: 8-6 (Won last week)

JUSTON LEWIS

Times-Union Sports reporter

Jaguars 24, Broncos 21

I fiddled with this a bit, but I think Liam Coen is in a flow state right now. I'll roll with the Jaguars in a close one.

Season: 8-6 (Won last week)

CLAYTON FREEMAN

Times-Union Sports reporter

Jaguars 26, Broncos 24

Could go either way in this one, but with four blowout wins in their last five, the Jaguars are playing their best football in a long, long time. Here's one prediction that a Cam Little kick makes the difference, and while we're on the topic, some food for thought: After nailing a preseason 70-yarder at sea level, just how far could Little boot a field goal into Denver's mile-high sky?

Season: 8-6 (Won last week)

TIM WALTERS

Times-Union Sports Editor

Jaguars 23, Broncos 20

The Broncos have won 11 games in a row, which tells me they're due to slip up at some point. Their last six games have been won by 8 points or less, so they're not exactly blowing teams out. This game means a lot more for Jacksonville than it does for Denver, so I expect the Jaguars to have some extra juice, especially early. I think the Jaguars will cause Bo Nix to turn the ball over late, something he's done just one time in his past four games.

Season: 9-5 (Won last week)

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jaguars at Denver predictions: Staff picks for NFL Week 16 2025