Minnesota Vikings v Chicago Bears betting tips: NFL picks for first week of new season

Week 1 wraps up at Soldier Field on Monday night when Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears lock horns in the Windy City.

The Vikings swept the Bears last season, winning 30-27 in overtime in Chicago before cruising to a 30-12 victory at home in December. Minnesota will be confident of extending their dominance, having won seven of the last eight meetings between the division rivals.

The Bears, however, enter the 2025 campaign with renewed optimism under new head coach Ben Johnson, while second-year quarterback Caleb Williams looks to build on a promising rookie season.

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Minnesota Vikings v Chicago Bears Tips

• Minnesota Vikings -1.5 @ 9/10
• JJ McCarthy – Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns – Match @ 20/21
• Caleb Williams – Over 31.5 Pass Attempts – Match @ 9/10

Vikings to keep the upper hand

Minnesota posted a 14-3 record last season despite relying on stop-gap quarterback Sam Darnold. With last year’s top draft pick JJ McCarthy now healthy and ready to start,  expectations are high for Kevin O’Connell’s team.

McCarthy hasn’t played a snap in the NFL yet, but he’s in a quarterback-friendly system and has looked sharp in preseason.

The Vikings have bolstered their receiving corps by bringing back veteran Adam Thielen to play opposite top target Justin Jefferson, with Jordan Addison suspended for the first three games.

Chicago played solidly against the pass last year, but they’ll be tested by a Vikings attack that ranked in the top six for yards per attempt and passing touchdowns. Minnesota’s defense has also improved, adding Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen to the front seven.

With the Bears still adjusting to former Detroit Lions offensive co-ordinator Johnson’s system, expect the Vikings to edge this one and cover the short spread.

McCarthy set for favourable matchup

Apart from a few preseason snaps, McCarthy last played in the 2024 CFP National Championship, where he led Michigan to a 34-13 win over Washington.

Now fully recovered from a torn meniscus he suffered just over a year ago, he’s set to make his NFL debut in a favourable matchup.

The Bears allowed only 17 passing touchdowns last season, the fewest in the league, but that statistic does not tell the full story as only five teams allowed more rushing scores.

Opponents found it easier to punch holes in Chicago’s defence on the ground, but their potential weakness this year could be through the air. 

The Bears’ pass rush is lacking with nobody outside of Montez Sweat looking capable of disrupting the quarterback on a regular basis and there are fresh question marks over their cornerbacks.

Pro Bowler Jaylon Johnson missed all summer with a leg injury, and his status is in doubt for Week 1.

And Tyrique Stevenson, who hit the headlines last year for his role in allowing a Hail Mary touchdown to the Washington Commanders in the final seconds of a Week 8 matchup, still has a lot to prove.

With a clean pocket and elite weapons, McCarthy should be able to find the end zone at least twice.

Chicago gave up multiple passing scores in both games against Minnesota last year, and McCarthy’s accuracy on short and intermediate throws could be key.

Williams likely to air it out

Williams threw for 3,541 yards and 20 touchdowns in his rookie season, but he was also the most sacked quarterback in the league. 

The Bears took steps to improve his protection in the offseason, but Williams may still need to rely on quick throws and volume.

He attempted 47 passes in the first meeting with Minnesota last year and 31 in the second, suggesting a high-volume approach could be on the cards again in Week 1.

With rookie RB Kyle Monangai and TE Colston Loveland still finding their feet, expect Williams to lean heavily on his arm to move the chains.

He averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game in the first seven games of his rookie season, but that increased to 33.9 over the course of his final 10 starts in 2024.

All odds correct at time of writing*

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